01 · The winter blues
Last winter, bills on the default rate rose 15% to 34%
If your bill jumped last winter, you weren't imagining it. Homes on their utility's default rate used barely more power than the year before, and paid a lot more for it. At Atlantic City Electric, 9 in 10 of those homes saw a higher bill, and about 3 in 10 paid at least 50% more.
Exhibit A
The rate moved, usage didn't
Atlantic City Electric
NJ · 414 homes
Central Maine Power
ME · 877 homes
Bills Arbor has on file from households whose bills showed them on their utility's default rate in winter 2024-25 and winter 2025-26 (December through February). None were on an Arbor-arranged plan in either winter. Median household change, same months only. Published rates are each utility's residential default-service price, averaged over the same months. Data as of October 9, 2026.
02 · the forecast
Rates are still climbing at most utilities, and Pennsylvania is leading the way
The next year doesn't look much calmer. Most of the utilities we track are headed up again, and Pennsylvania has four of the five biggest increases. A few places get some relief, including DC and New Hampshire.
Exhibit b
Biggest moves in our 12-month forecast
Delmarva PowerDE
+12.8%High
West Penn PowerPA
+10.2%High
Arbor's forecast of the residential default-service rate, October 2026 to October 2027, from the October 8, 2026 run. Confidence reflects how accurate the forecast has been for each utility in back-testing.
03 · Data centers & the grid
Not in your backyard, but you pay if you're on the same grid
DC has only a handful of data centers. Its electricity rate has roughly doubled since 2022 anyway.
That's the catch with a shared grid. DC is on the same one as Northern Virginia, home to one of the biggest clusters of data centers anywhere. The grid holds auctions to make sure enough power plants are ready when needed, and in 2025 the price jumped about ninefold. Its watchdog says data centers added $9.3 billion to the tab.
You don't have to live near one to pay for it. DC's consumer advocate estimated the auction alone would add about $10 a month to the average bill.
Exhibit C
Same grid, same spike
About nine times the year before
PJM capacity auction clearing price, dollars per megawatt-day, for most of the region. Since 2026/27, every auction has cleared at the regulator-approved cap. Source: PJM.